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2007年3月1日 星期四

Seeing forced selling by tomorrow

Something I cut from the UOBKayhian website.

When do I have to make payment?

All buy trade payments must be made on the due date (D). The due date (D) is defined as T + 3 where T is the trade date. For instance, if you bought shares on Monday (T), you will have to pay for them by Thursday (T + 3 = D). Otherwise, the shares will be force-sold on Friday (D + 1).


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The Shanghai bourse started the global selldown on Tuesday. That day the Straits Times Index fell by about 80 points. Wednesday, it fell another intraday low of around 190 points when the Dow Jones Index fell more than 500 points due to technical glitches.

Looking at this history, it is easy to observe that the stock market was still healthy on Monday (T-day). Presuming that this is a correct observation, buyers would have to pay up for their purchases by today (T+3) failing which the shares will be forced sold tomorrow, Friday 02 March 2007.

Throw in the fact that we have had an exciting rally since the end of 2006, it is not difficult to imagine that we might have many punters who are long on shares using margin financing.

Combine the forced selling and margin calls, the market is unlikely to see bullishness until the supply of shares is absorbed by stronger bulls.

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